Category Archive for: ‘Economic Commentary’

April Showers

April Showers?

A recent macroeconomic trend will make it difficult for the US equity market to continue to advance in April.  This trend has been the surge in the value of the US dollar versus most other currencies, but especially the Euro, over the last several months.  Equities appreciate in value based over the long term based on increases in earnings, and …

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Autumn Leaves On The Road

The Road Ahead

During the last couple of weeks investors worldwide have been taking “risk off the table” (selling equities) due to a variety of factors, the foremost of which is the rising geopolitical tensions worldwide.  Russian expansionism (Ukraine), radical Islamic Fundamentalism (ISIS), and the struggle for self-governance in Hong Kong are rattling worldwide markets.  Ditto, for the Ebola virus, which many ascribe …

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Taking A Bow

In our blog post of October 23, 2013, titled “The Light At The End Of The Tunnel…”, we forecast a dramatic slowing of domestic economic growth over the fourth quarter of 2013, and the first quarter of 2014 to less than 1%.  We were alone, or nearly alone, in this forecast of dramatic deceleration except perhaps for a few perpetual “bears” …

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Stormy Sky

Has Anything Really Changed?

It has been five years and five months since the Financial Crisis of 2008, and we find ourselves still answering the same question from existing and prospective clients alike.  “Has anything really changed?  Of course, what they really mean is, “Has worldwide market risk decreased substantially since the last financial crisis”? So, for that answer, we would like to first …

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Nun With Ruler

Put Your Hands On The Desk Please!

In our last blog posted in October, we forecast a dramatic slowing of economic growth for US economy.  We believed that ObamaCare, with its onslaught of higher premiums, deductibles, and taxes beginning on January 1, would adversely affect consumer expenditures during the critical holiday retail season. Our concern about fourth and first quarter GDP was predicated on declining consumer confidence …

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The Light at the End of the Tunnel…

After five years of sluggish US economic growth, last spring, we here at Sachem Rock believed we were seeing a “light at the end of the tunnel”. Our view that we were seeing “sunlight” at the end of the tunnel, was the result of the increasing strength of the US energy sector, the recovering US housing market, and the strengthening …

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Bernanke On The “High Wire”

After talking about it for months, last Wednesday the Federal Reserve Chairman backed off from his decision to begin tapering of the Federal Reserve’s purchases of US Treasury debt. Could it have been political; we doubt it, since Bernanke has nothing to gain as President Obama has announced his term will end on February 1st of next year.  Bernanke most …

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