Commentary

Great Bear Forest

The Bear Skulks…

skulk – (verb)  1. to lie or keep in hiding, as for some evil reason. The broad US equity market has been in a declining trend, and it has failed to establish a new high for almost nine months.  Since it’s peak on May 21st of last year, the broader market has now failed to sustain rallies on nine consecutive …

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Frown Grinch

Is The Grinch About To Steal Christmas?

“Your a mean one, Mr. Grinch…”                   – From the Song Your a Mean One, Mr. Grinch By Theodor Geisel & Albert Hague Last night, post-close, a news article was published on MarketWatch about a bond mutual fund restricting investor access to funds.  The article can be assessed by clicking the hyperlink below. …

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“Rational Irrationality”

“Rational Irrationality” is a concept put forth in a 2007 book, “ The Myth Of The Rational Voter” written by Ben Caplan, an economist attempting to reconcile the widespread existence of irrational behavior in religion and politics. Simply put, “rational irrationality” is the theory that individuals will relax their intellectual standards and allow themselves to be more easily influenced by …

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To Be Or Not To Be Image

To Raise Or Not To Raise, That Is The Question

In less than twenty-four hours, Chairman Janet Yellen of the US Federal Reserve will decide, whether or not, to raise interest rates for the first time since June of 2006.   While we certainly appreciate the danger of a prolonged period of negative real rates of interest, we here at Sachem Rock do not think the time to do raise interest …

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Great White Shark Hunts Seal At False Bay South Africa By Tonya Herron

Just When You Thought It Was Safe To Go Back In The Water…

Over the last several days, scores of financial media pundits and financial advisors have been recommending investors “buy the dip”, based on the “assumption” the market is in the midst of a bull market correction, and the correction is already over, and the “bottom is in”. Assumption is a derivation of the word assume, and we all also know the …

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Building Implosion

“When The Walls Come Tumblin’ Down”?

“When the walls come tumblin’ down, When the walls come crumblin’ crumblin’, When the walls come tumblin’ tumblin’, Tumblin’ tumblin’ down”  – From the song Crumblin’ Down by John Cougar Mellencamp (1983) Worldwide fundamentals have signaled weakness for some time now and US equity market technicals are beginning to catch up.  The long overdue bull market correction may finally be upon …

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April Showers

April Showers?

A recent macroeconomic trend will make it difficult for the US equity market to continue to advance in April.  This trend has been the surge in the value of the US dollar versus most other currencies, but especially the Euro, over the last several months.  Equities appreciate in value based over the long term based on increases in earnings, and …

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The Saudis Declare War On OPEC

As we wrote in the Sachem Rock commentary a “Gusher of Hyperbole” dated October 17, 2014 we expressed skepticism that OPEC, led by Saudi Arabia as the world’s biggest exporter would decide to maintain production at existing levels (30 million barrels per day), if a reduction in production was necessary to support Brent crude oil prices in the $85 to …

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Is It Safe

Is It Safe?

If anyone has seen the Marathon Man, a classic thriller from the 1970’s, they will never forget the torture scene where Laurence Olivier as the former Nazi war criminal, Christian Szell, tortures “Babe”, played by Dustin Hoffman, with dental instruments while repeatedly asking him the question… “Is it safe?” It is arguably one of the most uncomfortable scenes to watch …

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Crude Oil Market Update

Sachem Rock has been keeping a close eye on the weekly crude oil data since our “Gusher of Hyperbole” blog post on October 17th.  We continue to hold the view that the significant decline in crude oil and associated product prices was driven by seasonal low demand and refinery maintenance, and these price levels will not be sustained in the …

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